Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has reacted publicly after his prediction for the Ayawaso East NDC parliamentary primaries failed to reflect the final outcome, a result that stirred conversation across Ghana’s political space.
Ahead of the primaries, Dankwah’s data projected a tight race that placed Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed behind his main contender. However, when delegates cast their ballots, Baba Jamal defied the projections and emerged winner, sending shockwaves through analysts and political observers.
In his response, Mussa Dankwah openly admitted the miss, stressing that polling and data science are not crystal balls but tools that work within margins of error. He explained that while some elements of the results aligned with the data, the overall outcome exceeded the expected range, particularly in Baba Jamal’s performance. Rather than deflect blame, Dankwah chose transparency, breaking down where the model fell short and why such surprises can occur in internal party elections.
He also used the moment to highlight broader issues surrounding Ghanaian primaries, pointing to factors such as last-minute delegate decisions, voter inducement allegations, and the unique dynamics of delegate-based voting, all of which can disrupt even the most carefully built projections. According to him, these variables make primaries far less predictable than national elections.
Dankwah’s reaction has earned mixed responses. Some critics questioned the reliability of political polling, while others praised his honesty and willingness to engage the data critically instead of dismissing the outcome. For many observers, his response reinforced an important lesson: data informs politics, but it does not control it.
In the end, the Ayawaso East NDC primaries served as a reminder that Ghana’s political terrain still has room for surprises, where ground realities can overturn spreadsheets, and where humility remains a vital companion to analysis.
